There's disagreement on the exact number of storms we'll see in the Atlantic hurricane season ahead, but a consensus among meteorologists points towards several months of above-normal tropical activity with a peak coming in September.

Government meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center boast 70 percent confidence in this year's forecast outlook, including:

14 to 23 named storms
8 to 14 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes (cat 3+)

By comparison, Drs. Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University also foresee above-average tropical activity though their forecast released on April 7 leans on the conservative side of the NOAA numbers:

15 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes (cat 3+)

Here's a look at the seasonal averages:

11 named storms
6 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

Both sources tout the weakening El Nino, a cyclical cooling of the waters of the equatorial Pacific that can alter upper-level winds, as one of the primary reasons.

In addition, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic have run warmer than normal. NOAA reports record warmth in parts of the ocean basin -- up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average.

These factors not only make it easier for storms to get started, they also make conditions favorable for intensification.

NOAA also cites the tropical multi-decadal cycle as an indicator. We're currently in an era of high activity, with eight of the last 15 seasons ranking in the top 10 for the most named storms.

Historically, first place goes to 2005 -- the year of Katrina and Rita -- with 28 total named storms.

You can track any active tropical cyclones and also monitor satellite loops over the major Atlantic regions by going to the "Tropics" section of news8austin.com

Watch for the Tropical Update through the hurricane season at :48 past each hour on 'Weather on the Eights.'